LSU joined rival Alabama standing on the cliff of broken dreams, unfilled expectations and squandered opportunity. With one more step … it’s into the abyss.
Texas A&M, after beating LSU, now looks safer than Texas.
Would Tennessee be safe at 10-2? That’s no guarantee.
LSU joined rival Alabama standing on the cliff of broken dreams, unfulfilled expectations and squandered opportunity. With one more step, either team will spiral into the abyss of also-ran bowls.
One of the two will take that plunge Nov. 9, when these rivals will meet in Baton Rouge in what amounts to a battle for fifth place in the SEC – and a College Football Playoff eliminator for the loser.
‘We’ve lost our margin for error,’ LSU’s Brian Kelly said after his team suffered its second defeat by squandering a second-half lead in a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M that left the Aggies as the SEC’s only team without a conference loss.
The crowd of playoff contenders remains rows deep. Nowhere is the competition thicker than in the mercurial, messy and murky SEC.
Two SEC teams tumbled off the ledge Saturday.
Offseason darling Missouri never looked the part of playoff contender, and the Tigers made their bust official by getting plastered, 34-0, by Alabama.
In-season darling Vanderbilt persists as a tricky opponent, a team that started Alabama down its sad path toward the broken-hearts club, but the Commodores won’t be a playoff qualifier, not after losing to Texas.
That leaves the SEC with seven playoff contenders, and although no rule prevents that many from qualifying for the 12-team playoff, those based in the land of the rational see that there probably won’t be room for more than four SEC playoff qualifiers to emerge from a crowded bubble.
Here’s how I assess the seven SEC contenders’ playoff chances, from best to worst:
1. Georgia (6-1): The Bulldogs reclaimed their perch of power by mangling Texas a week ago. Games against fellow contenders Tennessee and Ole Miss remain, but Georgia can afford one more loss and still make the playoff.
2. Texas A&M (7-1): The Aggies looked the part of pretender in the first half against LSU, but became contender after halftime – and not just playoff contender. SEC champion contender, too. Coach Mike Elko might need to keep juggling two quarterbacks, but the defense is solid.
3. Texas (7-1): The Longhorns survived what would have been a crippling punch from Vanderbilt, but their soft SEC schedule draw would leave them vulnerable to the selection committee’s musings if they lose on Thanksgiving weekend at rival Texas A&M.
4. Tennessee (6-1): The Vols should be favored in every remaining game except a Nov. 16 date against Georgia, but would two-loss Tennessee be a shoo-in for the playoff? Tennessee’s resume will be pinned to its win against Alabama. How many losses will the Tide have come Selection Sunday? A two-loss Tennessee probably would get in, but it can eliminate doubt by beating Georgia.
5. LSU (6-2): The Tigers lead a trio of SEC teams that can’t lose again. They’re one-dimensional. Pass, pass, pass some more, and try to hold on for dear life while on defense. LSU can’t afford any struggles from star quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. See the second-half collapse against Texas A&M, when Nussmeier threw three interceptions.
6. Alabama (6-2): This is as flawed of an Alabama team as any since the early days of Nick Saban’s dynasty, but if the Tide can rally to 10-2, they might force the committee’s hand to take a fifth SEC team. Alabama owns a premier victory – it blitzed Georgia in September – but also suffered the most puzzling loss among contenders, at Vanderbilt.
7. Ole Miss (6-2): The Rebels’ playoff bid isn’t as simple as upsetting Georgia on Nov. 9 – not that anything will be simple about that. They also must survive Arkansas, Florida and the Egg Bowl. What was supposed to be a dream season in Oxford speeds toward a disappointing end.
SEC’s chaos scenario for the College Football Playoff
Six of the seven contenders could finish 10-2 or better, but that stretches the imagination. Five of the seven finishing with no more than two losses, though, resides within reasonable bounds.
To not make things too wacky, let’s assume Georgia beats Ole Miss. Now, engage with me on this scenario:
∎ Georgia takes care of its business and goes 11-1. It’s all set.
∎ Texas A&M loses a second game – at South Carolina, let’s say – but beats Texas. It’s 10-2 entering the SEC championship.
∎ Texas finishes 10-2, with losses to Georgia and Texas A&M.
∎ Tennessee loses to Georgia and rests its case at 10-2.
∎ LSU runs the table and goes 10-2.
Tiebreakers would be required in this scenario to determine the SEC championship game matchup.
If the playoff committee can’t find room for all five teams, who gets cut? An LSU win against Alabama would neutralize the best line on Tennessee’s resume. Texas could be left without any wins against teams that finish ranked in the Top 25, but its two losses would be to top-10 teams.
Best guess? In the scenario I’ve laid out, the SEC receives four bids, and two-loss Texas or Tennessee gets iced out. Both Texas and Tennessee will have played Georgia, so how those games unfolded could split the hair. Or, perhaps LSU would get the cold shoulder because, unlike Texas and Tennessee, it would have two losses despite not facing Georgia. The Tigers, though, own a robust strength of schedule.
Here’s what else I’m eyeing from the ‘Topp Rope’:
Ohio State wobbles, survives, but concerns linger
Ohio State boasts one of the nation’s best collections of running back and wide receiver talent, but someone has to get those receivers the ball, and several someones must open holes for the running backs.
Multiple injuries to Buckeyes offensive tackles are of serious concern, and the line hamstrung the offense in OSU’s 21-17 escape against Nebraska.
‘It’s not good enough,’ Buckeyes coach Ryan Day said of his O-line.
And, if it doesn’t improve, the Buckeyes (6-1) will go as far as their defense takes them and not one step further. OSU’s upcoming games against Penn State and Indiana are landmines.
Three and out
1. After Colorado beat Cincinnati to improve to 6-2, a 10-win season is in play for Deion Sanders. Regardless of where the record lands, his two-year turnaround of the Buffaloes is nothing short of remarkable. Some Gators fans who salivated over Lane Kiffin a month ago soon will shift their envious eye to Coach Prime.
2. Poll voters who aren’t ranking No. 13 Indiana (8-0) in the top 10 are doing this wrong. The Hoosiers keep wrecking opponents. They beat Washington 31-17 while playing with backup quarterback Tayven Jackson. The Ohio State team we saw struggle vs. Nebraska wouldn’t beat the Indiana team that demolished the Huskers the previous week.
3. My latest ‘Topp Rope’ playoff projection: Georgia (SEC), Oregon (Big Ten), Clemson (ACC), Brigham Young (Big 12), Boise State (Group of Five), plus at-large selections Texas A&M, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Miami. Next up: Penn State, Iowa State, LSU, Alabama, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, SMU.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. The ‘Topp Rope’ is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network. Subscribe to read all of his columns.