Even Lincoln Riley’s famed offense can’t bail Southern California out of mess

After another weekend of college football unpredictability, Matt Hayes weighs in with his First-and-10 column looking at the key topic across the country ahead of Week 7 action.

1. USC football: The Fall of Troy

What we have here is a bona fide inflection point, a crossroads where all paths lead to one underlying question.

Does Southern California have the right coach with Lincoln Riley?

“That’s the frustrating thing for our team right now,” Riley said last weekend, after he and his tenure at USC ran face first into Big Ten reality. “We’re two plays away from probably being 5-0.”

And a couple more plays from being USC under Clay Helton.

This is how it begins, everyone. The road to unemployment is littered annually with the three undeniable excuses: coulda, woulda and shoulda.

We’re not even two weeks into October, and already the Trojans are staring at make or break this season. Beat No. 5 Penn State Saturday in a game of Who’s The Pretender (more on that later), or the unfolding ugly begins to infect everything.

Think about this: What do Billy Napier (Florida), Sonny Dykes (TCU), Sam Pittman (Arkansas), Hugh Freeze (Auburn) and Riley have in common?

They’ve all lost seven of their last 12 games.

If you’re Lincoln Riley, that’s the last group of coaches you want to run with. For the first time in his meteoric rise as head coach/offensive savant, he doesn’t have the answers.

Michigan and Minnesota physically manhandled USC in the second half of losses, exposing the one variable Riley’s teams at Oklahoma and USC haven’t been able to shake: the finesse tag.

Soft on the lines of scrimmage, fading with the game on the line.

USC trudged off the field last weekend, beaten up and beaten down by a middling Minnesota team that was 1-6 in its previous seven games against ranked teams ― the only win over Iowa last year in a game of which defense can score the most points. We’re not talking Ohio State or Oregon or any other Big Ten heavyweight.

This was Row The Boat with players USC wouldn’t think twice about recruiting.

But there was Riley’s offense, the foundation of his coaching resume, managing all of 17 points against a Gophers defense that gave up 31 points to offensively-challenged Iowa on the same field two weeks earlier.

If your offense is trailing Iowa – the team that last year punted for more yards than it gained – there’s clearly a disconnect somewhere.

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2. The recruiting problem

Late in the fourth quarter against Minnesota, after USC couldn’t protect quarterback Miller Moss and the defense finally wore down and couldn’t stop the Minnesota run game, the glaring problem with Riley at USC was exposed.

He’s not recruiting and developing players on the lines of scrimmage.

We’re three recruiting classes into the Riley era, and only two of the starting offensive linemen are organically recruited and developed. On the defensive line, all four starters are transfers from the portal.

You’re not surviving in the Big Ten with that buildout plan.

Riley’s three recruiting classes at USC finished 70th (2022), 8th (2023) and 17th (2024) in the 247sports composite rankings, but more damning is the staff’s inability to recruit the talent-rich state of California.

In the last three recruiting classes ranked by 247sports, USC signed three of the top 20 players from California in 2022, four in 2023 and two in 2024 – or nine of the top 60 players (15 percent) from the state over that span. Six are still on the team, and none of the original nine were offensive or defensive linemen.

The state of California had 13 offensive and defensive linemen ranked in the top 20 over that three-year period. USC didn’t sign one.

USC has commitments from two of the top 20 California players for the 2025 class, and there are four offensive or defensive linemen in the top 20. Two are committed to Oregon, one to Texas A&M and one to Alabama.

Want to know how USC loses to Minnesota? There’s your answer.

3. The fall of Troy, The Epilogue

Penn State rolls into the Coliseum Saturday, and there’s nothing left to guess: It’s a manhood game.

Who wants it more?

Penn State, which since 2021 has won every regular season game against everyone not named Michigan and Ohio State ― or USC, which has cratered since the high-water mark under Riley in 2022.

Since USC played (and lost to) Utah in the 2022 Pac-12 championship fame with a spot in the playoff on the line, the Trojans are 8-8 vs. power conference teams. Riley’s brief tenure is as much about developing another Heisman Trophy winner (Caleb Williams), as it is failing miserably with him a year later.

And now there’s the move to the Big Ten, which could begin with three losses in the first four games and a whole lot of unknown on the horizon. If USC can lose to Minnesota, it can lose to Big Ten mids Rutgers, Washington and Nebraska, too.

Then guess who’s middling?

This is where we are with Riley at USC. A $100 million-plus marriage of coulda, woulda, shoulda.

4. Ashton Jeanty: chasing Barry Sanders

Somebody has to say it: Ashton Jeanty is 1,598 yards from breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season NCAA rushing yards record.

But look deeper into the numbers, and Jeanty’s season is statistically better than one of the most unreachable records in sports history.

Sanders had 344 carries for 2,628 yards in 11 games (bowl game statistics weren’t counted in 1988), and – here’s the key – averaged 7.6 yards and 31.2 carries per game. Jeanty, heading into Saturday’s game at Hawaii, is averaging 10.8 yards and 19 carries per game.

So while Jeanty will have more games (a minimum of 13, or more if Boise State wins the Mountain West Conference) than Sanders, he hasn’t had as many opportunities. If Jeanty were averaging as many carries as Sanders, he’d have 1,782 yards after five games.

Instead, Jeanty has 1,031, and needs to average 200 yards per game over the next eight games to break the record. Here’s where it gets intriguing: if Jeanty averaged Sanders’ 31.2 carries per game, he’d reach the unreachable in Game 10.

One game quicker than Sanders.

5. The Weekly Five

Five suggestions for new Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer to right the ship.

1. The guy who wears No. 2 and plays like Lynn Swann? Feed him.

2. The guy who once occupied your office? Tell him to back off the bulletin board material.

3. Offensive lineman Kadyn Proctor is a mountain. Run to the perimeter behind him.

4. Figure out the zone-read offense – before South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers does the same thing this week that Diego Pavia did last week.

5. Ignore this utter nonsense as much as humanly possible.

6. NFL scout’s take on Boston College DE Donovan Ezeiruak

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible player. The scout requested anonymity to protect the team’s draft preparation.

“He stayed in school and has really improved his game. More explosive and better awareness. I’d watch him last year and think, he’s right there to make a play – but doesn’t, for whatever reason. He’s getting home now, and he’s a load to block. Much more disruptive this season, and has improved his bend and hands. These are the stories you love to see when guys stay another season, get legitimate NFL coaching from Bill O’Brien’s staff, and get much better.”

7. Power Play: Ohio State’s big test

This week’s College Football Playoff power poll, and one big thing.

1. Texas: Last time we saw QB Quinn Ewers in a big game, he was the best player on the field in a win at Michigan.

2. Ohio State: Defense has given up four touchdowns in five games, and now gets explosive Oregon offense on the road.

3. Miami: QB Cam Ward responded with nine touchdowns (7 pass, 2 rush) when Hurricanes trailed South Florida, Virginia Tech and California.

4. Brigham Young: Cougars should be 8-0 (games against Arizona, Oklahoma State, at Central Florida) when traveling to Utah for the Holy War.

5. Georgia: Good to know coach Kirby Smart has found a new foil: the Georgia fans. Tighten up, folks.

6. Alabama: Suddenly the games at Tennessee (Oct. 19) and at LSU (Nov.9) look more interesting – and threatening.

7. Oregon: If QB Dillon Gabriel starts slow against Ohio State like he did against Michigan State, the Buckeyes rout is on.

8. Penn State: The USC game is why Penn State paid offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki $7.1 million over 4 years: find plays to win games that matter.

9. Tennessee: Vols are a different team at home, and QB Nico Iamaleava will play with more confidence against rival Florida.

10. Ole Miss: Breathe, everyone. One week after the shock of the Kentucky loss, and everything is back on track.

11. Iowa State: Cyclones are 5-0 for the first time since 1980, and have a manageable path to 10-0.

12. Boise State: Through the magic of the transitive property, an Oregon victory over Ohio State strengthens Boise State’s three-point loss to the Ducks.

13, Clemson: Since the 34-3 loss to Georgia, QB Cade Klubnik has 18 touchdowns (4 rush) and 1 interception.

14. Notre Dame: QB Riley Leonard still needs a higher percentage on easy, drive-sustaining throws.

15. Texas A&M: No team has grown more over the first six weeks of the season.

16. Kansas State: Wildcats have had two weeks to prepare for Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, and Buffs’ shaky offensive line.

8. Mail Bonding: goodness, those ACC officials

Matt: I’ve just about had enough of ACC officials clearing the road for the favorites just to get the (CFP) playoff money. When are you guys going to call it out? – Vick Fisher, Atlanta.

Vick:

I assume you’re talking about the (take your pick) non-targeting call on Miami against Cal, or the missed illegal man (men, multiple offensive linemen) down field call on Miami’s game-winning touchdown, or the Hail Mary overturn in Miami’s win over Virginia Tech that clearly wasn’t “indisputable” in any way, shape or form, or the overturned SMU fumble that was a fumble on a drive that led to the game-winning points?

Yeah, uh, I don’t know what you’re talking about.

9. Numbers game: Florida State’s suddenly uneasy future

70. It’s just a one-off season at Florida State, right? Just a few (or 8-10, depending on how you look at it) misses in the transfer portal away from the team that won 19 consecutive games from 2022-23.

Now FSU is careening toward a two-win season.

But before you start thinking about firing everybody, understand this: after last year’s flirtation with Alabama and the corresponding contract extension (God bless Jimmy Sexton), coach Mike Norvell is bulletproof with a near $70 million buyout. That, and FSU’s ongoing legal battle with the ACC has pegged the university in a deep financial hole.

Or, FSU can throw that $70 million on top of a potential ACC buyout and see what happens down the road in whatever conference eventually accepts them.

I’ll give you a hint: the Florida State Seminoles, brought to you by Blackstone.